COSMO Wave 1.13

Background

To support federal response efforts, Impact Canada is leading the implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Behavioural Insights (BI) Tool on COVID-19 in the Canadian context. This work is led in collaboration with the Public Opinion Research Team within the Privy Council Office’s (PCO) Communications and Consultation Secretariat, which supports the Prime Minister’s Office in coordinating government communications in accordance with key priorities.

Methodology

With a longitudinal design, the study follows 2,000 participants recruited from an online panel over sixteen data collection waves. New participants are added only when an original panelist stops participating.

Respondents are a representative mix of Canadian adults aged 18 years and older and results are weighted using 2016 Statistics Canada census data to mirror the population distribution in Canada.

Considerations

When interpreting the COSMO results it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may or may not have influenced the responses of survey participants. During the Wave 13 data collection period (May 5-12, 2021):

1. Canada was experiencing its third wave and many provinces introduced or extended strict restrictions. Notably, cases were beginning to decline in countries with widespread access to vaccines (e.g., UK, Israel, US).
2. The national COVID-19 case numbers in Canada as of May 5 (the day data collection began) were 82,700 active cases.
3. The Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccines had been approved for use in Canada and approximately 34.5% of the Canadian population had received one dose of a vaccine (as of May 5). On the first day of data collection, Health Canada announced that Canadians 12 years and older were eligible to receive the Pfizer vaccine.
4. There continued to be significant media coverage of the AstraZeneca vaccine and its potential side effects. Some provinces, including Ontario, paused the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. On May 3, NACI advised that mRNA vaccines (such as the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines) are “preferred” relative to non-mRNA vaccines (such as the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines).
5. Media coverage during the data collection period also focused heavily on the new, more contagious COVID-19 variants. Prior to the data collection period, the federal government imposed a ban on all commercial and private flights from India and Pakistan, due to the rise of variant cases – highlighting the continued risk of imported COVID-19 cases.

Public Risk Perceptions

In Wave 13 the number of respondents who indicated “we are currently experiencing the worst of the crisis” increased 18 points, after a decline in Waves 11 and 12. Those who say “the worst of the crisis is yet to come” was at its lowest point since data collection began (17% still say the worst is yet to come, compared to 52% in April 2020). Consistent with previous waves, younger respondents are most optimistic – respondents aged 18-34 are more likely to think that “the worst of the crisis is behind us” (35%), compared to 26% of respondents aged 35-54 and 22% of respondents 55+. In addition, the proportion of respondents who think that COVID-19 feels like it is “spreading fast,” increased 13 points from 40% in Wave 12 to 53% in Wave 13.

Information Sources

Trust in and use of government information sources (e.g., federal public health leaders, daily press conferences) was highest early on in the pandemic and has declined slowly since. In Wave 13, trust in government information sources about COVID-19 declined again after rebounding slightly in Wave 12 (see figure below). Trust was the highest in government health agencies (50%), Government of Canada websites (47%) and provincial public health leaders (46%).

Across time, respondents aged 55+ have consistently reported the highest levels of trust in government sources. Women are also more trusting of government information sources than men. For example, 53% of women reported that they trust government health agencies compared to 46% of men. Trust in government information sources also varies by province/territory. In Wave 13, trust in government information sources about COVID-19 was the highest in the Atlantic Provinces and British Columbia and the Yukon, and lowest in Alberta and the Northwest Territories.

A new question added to the survey in Wave 13 asked respondents how much they trust the Government of Canada, their provincial/territorial government and their local government to do what is right. 32% of respondents indicated that they trust/have a great deal of trust in the Government of Canada “to do what is right”. Respondents in the Atlantic provinces (46%) were most likely to indicate trust/a great deal of trust in the Government of Canada, and respondents in Alberta and the Northwest Territories (19%) were the least trusting.

Compliance with Protective Behaviours

Using a split sample, half of COSMO respondents were asked how important it is to continue to adhere to measures after full vaccination (i.e., two doses), and half were asked how important it is after partial vaccination (i.e., one dose). Overall most respondents indicated that it was “important” to continue to adhere to public health measures such as hand hygiene, staying home when sick, and quarantining after exposure to COVID-19 post full and partial vaccination.

Slightly more respondents indicated that continued adherence to public health measures is important for partially vaccinated people, compared to those who are fully vaccinated – indicating that most respondents understand that two doses are necessary for greater protection. For example, 80% of respondents thought that limiting international travel was important for those who are partially vaccinated, compared to 60% for those who are fully vaccinated.

In another split sample question, half of respondents who had not yet received a vaccine were asked whether they agreed with the following statement: “Once I am partially vaccinated against COVID-19, I will feel safe having close interaction indoors with people from outside of my household without the use of masks”. The other half was asked whether they would feel safe having close interactions once they were fully vaccinated. 36% agreed that they would feel safe after being fully vaccinated, compared to 21% who agreed they would feel safe after being partially vaccinated. Interestingly, ~50% of respondents in both the partially vaccinated and fully vaccinated questions indicated some level of uncertainty (3-5 out of 7) around their comfort with close interactions indoors post-vaccination.

Only 66% of respondents who have been vaccinated indicated that they have a clear understanding of what they are allowed to do after receiving a vaccine, suggesting that there is a communication and knowledge gap in post-vaccination guidance.

Mental Health

Reported life satisfaction remained stable between Waves 12 and 13. Just over a third of respondents (41%) are very satisfied/satisfied with their lives, while 21% are very dissatisfied/dissatisfied. High numbers of respondents continue to report feeling fatigued (53%), burnt-out (45%), anxious (43%), lonely (39%), and depressed (39%) either occasionally or most/all of the time.

Disaggregation of the data by age suggests the pandemic has been particularly difficult for respondents aged 18-34 with regard to mental health. Young people are reporting higher levels of loneliness and depression. For example, 22% of respondents aged 18-34 reported feeling lonely most or all of the time, compared to 15% of respondents aged 35-54 and 9% of respondents aged 55+.

New questions added in Wave 13 asked respondents how much they worry about their own mental health as well as the mental health of Canadians. 23% of respondents reported that they worry a lot about their own mental health. Respondents aged 18-34 (31%) and respondents aged 35-54 (28%) reported the most worry, compared to older respondents (14%). Women with children at home (35%) were among the most worried about their mental health. In addition, 36% of respondents reported that they are worried about the mental health of Canadians. Women (41%) are more worried than men (30%).

Vaccine confidence

Overall, in Wave 13, 82% of the COSMO sample had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (54%) or indicated agreement (using a 7-point scale from ‘Strongly Disagree’ to ‘Strongly Agree’) to a statement about intending to get a vaccine (28%). This represents an increase from Wave 12, when 74% of the sample had either received a vaccine or intended to get one.

Among those who had only received one dose, 98% indicated they intend to get a second. The vast majority indicated that they had a positive experience. For example, 90% indicated they would recommend that others get the vaccine, and 87% agreed that getting vaccinated was a simple and easy experience. In addition, 52% of respondents reported feeling a sense of relief since getting the vaccine. Only 1% of respondents indicated they regretted getting the vaccine and few respondents indicated that they encountered obstacles during the process.

Among unvaccinated respondents, 65% indicated that they have a vaccine preference. When those who indicated they have a brand preference were asked which vaccines they would accept among the four vaccines approved by Health Canada, 82% said they would accept the Pfizer vaccine, 58% would accept Moderna, 16% would accept Johnson & Johnson, 7% would accept Astrazeneca, and 13% said “don’t know”.

In Wave 13, a question was added to COSMO on whether respondents who live with children under the age of 18 intend to have their children vaccinated. As a contextual note, on May 5 – one day prior to data collection – Health Canada approved the Pfizer vaccine for children 12 and older. Overall, 55% of respondents with children at home agreed or strongly agreed that they would have their child(ren) vaccinated if one were available and recommended. 15% of respondents with children at home disagreed, 18% were neutral, and 12% were unsure. When segmented by age of children at home, respondents were more likely to agree that they would vaccinate older children (aged 12-17), compared to younger children (aged 6-11 and 6 and under). Mothers appear slightly more uncertain about getting their children vaccinated (48% agree, 18% don’t know) compared to fathers (61% agree,6% don’t know).

Wave 13 included a set of hypothetical scenarios to determine what measures, if any, may motivate respondents who had not yet received a vaccine to get vaccinated right away. Some of the measures tested included: receiving a financial reward from the Government, receiving paid time off from employers, and vaccines being mandatory to engage in certain activities. All measures were most effective in increasing the likelihood of vaccination for those who already intend to be vaccinated right away, and less effective for those who want to wait or who are unsure. Respondents who do not intend to be vaccinated reported that these measures would increase their likelihood of being vaccinated at much lower rates and, in many cases, these respondents indicated that the measures would make them less likely to be vaccinated.

Getting the vaccine in a convenient location (55%) and the ability to set up an appointment on a convenient day and time (54%) were the most popular selections. Financial incentives from the Government (46%) or employers (44% for employed respondents) were slightly less effective at increasing vaccine intentions and carried slightly higher risks of backfire. Financial rewards may be more effective for some demographic groups. For example, financial incentives appear to be more effective at encouraging visible minority respondents and younger respondents (18-34) to get a vaccine right away compared to nonvisible minority and older respondents.

In Wave 13, a new question asks respondents whether they had seen anti-vaccination content on social media (i.e. posts that doubt or challenge the safety of vaccines, and/or discourage getting vaccinated) over the past four weeks. Concerningly, a near majority of respondents (46%) have seen anti-vaccination content on social media within the past 4 weeks.

Women (50%) were more likely than men (43%) to report seeing anti-vaccination content. Younger respondents (52%) were also more likely to report encountering anti-vaccination content online, compared to respondents aged 35-54 (49%) and respondents aged 55+ (41%). Respondents with children at home (n = 497; 52%) – women with children in particular (58%) – were more likely than respondents without children (44%) to report seeing anti-vaccination content on social media over the past four weeks.

In addition, 63% of respondents who indicated that they do not want to get the COVID-19 vaccine (n=111) reported seeing anti-vaccination content, compared to the average, 46% – suggesting that exposure to anti-vaccination content may be influencing vaccine intentions of some Canadians.

Travel Intentions and Border Measures

A majority of respondents indicated that they would like to see both US restrictions (82%) and international restrictions (82%) remain in place for 1-6+ months (see figure below). Respondents are less supportive of long-term domestic closures. Despite the rollout of vaccines, travel intentions and intentions to fly on a plane within the next year remain low. There is also low comfort with increasing travel with certain countries. The only country where respondents have become somewhat more comfortable with increased travel is Australia (13% in Wave 9, 17% in Wave 11, 19% in Wave 12 and 23% in Wave 13).

In Wave 13, respondents were asked to indicate whether they thought the following 6 travel measures would effectively reduce the risk of importing COVID-19 cases: Pausing flights from countries with a high number of cases and/or potential new variants of concern; A requirement to take a COVID-19 test at the airport upon arrival; A requirement to show proof of COVID-19 immunization upon arrival; High fines for not complying with quarantine rules at designated facilities or at home; A requirement to get tested upon arrival and to quarantine in designated facilities (e.g. a hotel) with expenses paid by the traveller until negative COVID-19 test results are available (i.e. approximately three days); A requirement to quarantine in designated facilities (e.g. a hotel) for 14 days upon arrival with expenses paid by the traveller. A majority of respondents thought these measures would be effective/very effective or moderately effective. Pausing flights was seen as the most effective (73%). Older respondents were much more likely to think these measures would be effective.